Brinkmanship

Brinkmanship

So, the government shut-down is over.

Those few American’s who cared, can sigh, and return their attention their sport fascination. The World Series in baseball will being on Wednesday and the NFL season is still in its first quarter. 

But back to that shut-down. The Democrat’s may gloat. The president is. Republican’s are licking the wounds they received in recent public opinion (at least moderates are) while the Tea Party remains defiant and convinced that principle is more important than governance. 

A few brief thoughts.

First, I believe that I am a principled man. I agree with principle and applaud those who apply principle to their daily life. It may too old a concept for this post-modern society, but I think it still has a place. However, when a principle endangers the economic security while acting as cover for presidential character assassination I can not agree. 

Second, the so-called “deal” that allows the government to operate again and pay its bills is in fact no deal. This whole negotiation will be repeated early next year (2014)! So in reality, three weeks of brinkmanship only to “kick the can down the road” as my grandfather would have said. That is NOT responsible government. 

Living in Europe and teaching politics, government, and international relations: yes, three separate classes I have been mentally and emotionally exhausted trying to explain in a non-biased manner the disfunction that is Washington politics and the general state of political affairs in the United States. 

Brinkmanship without tangible result(s) is not a positive game.

More on this point in another post. 

 

Perverse Politics

Perverse Politics

The United States is in shutdown mode. It has been like this for over a week. Friends abroad were amused now they are worried.

It is the responsibility of every U.S. member of Congress to seek a deal. Partisan politics are over. Why?

The world can not afford (literally) for the U.S. to default. The economy of the U.S. is slowly growing. The economy in the U.K. is slowly growing and while the news of Greece’s demise may now be considered overestimated, the euro-zone is not out of the “woods” quite yet though promising signs have given hope to Croatia and Latvia.

Since the U.S. holds the world’s reserve currency. Defaulting on its debt would not be good for investors and certainly not for the reputation of the U.S. economy.

Debate on the domestic issues are important, necessary in a democracy, but effective hostage taking by the minority (opposition) to a policy or a law or a particular person as Chief Executive is NOT democratic.

End the perverse pleasure in the partisan arena of American politics. There will be no winner only losers.

Perverse politics

The perverse politics of Shutdown

The United States is in shutdown mode. It has been like this for over a week. Friends abroad were amused now they are worried.

It is the responsibility of every U.S. member of Congress to seek a deal. Partisan politics are over. Why?

The world can not afford (literally) for the U.S. to default. The economy of the U.S. is slowly growing. The economy in the U.K. is slowly growing and while the news of Greece’s demise may now be considered overestimated, the euro-zone is not out of the “woods” quite yet though promising signs have given hope to Croatia and Latvia.

Since the U.S. holds the world’s reserve currency. Defaulting on its debt would not be good for investors and certainly not for the reputation of the U.S. economy.

Debate on the domestic issues are important, necessary in a democracy, but effective hostage taking by the minority (opposition) to a policy or a law or a particular person as Chief Executive is NOT democratic.

End the perverse pleasure in the partisan arena of American politics. There will be no winner only losers.

Autumn

The air has added a chill. Cooler in the mornings with the sunset earlier in the evening.
I think fondly of apple pie and pumpkins and the beautiful changing leaves on the trees.

Israel and Palestine: Real chance? Again…

Most of the news in the American media is focused on the continued government shutdown and the potential for a default if the national debt ceiling can’t be raised.

In Europe, the E.U. congratulates itself on avoiding have to use NATO troops in Syria though accepting the Russian-U.S. plan Assad has agreed to give up his chemical weapons, though now some reports say that inspectors are being hampered in their efforts.

(Sarcastic) And I thought all was okay with the world now that the watchdog group won the Nobel Peace prize.

What has been overlooked is the re-start of some dialogue. Well, the promise of dialogue between the Israelis and Palestinians. Israel releases “prisoners”, men who committed acts of violence against innocents, in exchange for signs of Palestinian willingness to negotiate.

This is a chance for a fresh start? No, sadly, it follows a pattern where the rhetoric once splashed across the newspapers and twitter universe look good but will not be fruitful.

Only when both sides are tired, and I mean that the politicians are so tired that talking and making compromises will finally work that there will be finally peace. After more than fifty years of bloodshed. Not, yet.

I am not cynical. I am being realistic. Dialogue is important. Dialogue is necessary. But it should be used effectively, rather than a publicity stunt.

Nobel controversy

While those inspectors deserve respect for the tough job they do, I don’t think as a “group” they should have gotten the award. It was political.

I felt similar to when President Obama won.

Malala deserved to be considered and in present company would have been a better choice than the watchdog group OPCW. However the point of the win has been lost.

What or who has advanced peace?

Sadly in the politically charged world that is not the question anymore.

Debt talks

Debt talks

Why must the White House offer ideas? The president has been public in his wishes. The opinion polls offer evidence that the American people don’t like the strategy the Republicans have. 

Who would like “hostage taking”?

So really, the ball is in the GOP’s court, because it never left. Will reason prevail or insanity continue?

I hope for the former. I am tired of explaining it all to Europeans.

Congress and the Executive

An interesting piece from NPR online today asking the question if what America needs is a parliament style government. 

Setting aside the numerical complications of such an endeavor it won’t work in the system our founding fathers envisioned. 

We have a Constitutional framework for three separate, yet interconnected branches of government. While the framers,  scholars agree, never foresaw the amount of power and influence that the executive branch would grow to hold (Congress and its two chambers was based on British parliamentary democracy) it nevertheless has been effectively “checked” over the decades by the other two branches.

What the debate about the gridlock in Washington should really be about are the districting policy otherwise known as gerrymandering and election law. Gerrymandering has grown into a significant artform and is part of the problem in creating a highly partisan Congress whereas election laws allows limitless campaign donations so the candidate i.e. office is truly “for sale”. 

Arab Winter

The cease-fire is holding between Hamas and Israel. What is considered normal daily routine for Arabs and Israelis have begun again. The winners, losers, in general the “fall-out” from the latest fighting has begun. And simple old truths remain, while dramatic changes within the region have occurred.

Israel ‘lost’. This author places the word lost in quotation, because in any conflict with the Arabs they lose. This is not a surprise. What is interesting is how the Western media continue to comment and analyze the obvious. So it is interesting that the Economist would follow suit and make the title statement “old dawn” and lament that Israel and won the military campaign and lost the political one. See article: http://www.economist.com/blogs/pomegranate/2012/11/after-ceasefire?fsrc=nlw%7Cnewe%7C11-23-2012%7C4228644%7C35801140%7C

This has always been the case. Anytime in the past ten years, one may argue twenty years, that Israel has mounted incursions into Gaza (we all should remember 2009) the IDF is successful but public opinion in Europe and on most North American news and print media show Palestinian victims, so it is Hamas or the Palestinian Authority that win a political victory.

In a good piece Geoffrey Goldberg wrote this past week he gave the Hamas-Israel conflict in the context of a Cold War that occasionally become “hot”. This as good a reference point for Americans. But with domestic politics as main headlines and the economy the main concern for so many people, this latest conflict in Israel is soon to be forgotten.

What should not be forgotten is the precarious situation that Israel now faces. Each of its borders are no longer secure. The Arab states that experienced the so-called Arab Spring such as Egypt, that played such an important role in creating the cease-fire agreement, is a country now run by the Muslim Brotherhood. A group largely sympathetic to Hamas. The PA within the West Bank has been completely sidelined. Syria is still fighting its civil war, Lebanon has been and continues to be fought over by all, while Jordan is facing its own-yet largely ignored by Western press-domestic problems. The common thread in each nation is the rise of Islamist groups and the shadow of Iranian influence is evident.

The hope and enthusiasm that much of Europe and the U.S. shared with newly declared Arab nations during the Arab Spring is no more. The Hamas-Israel war of attrition has shed light on a new reality in the Middle East. The Arab Spring is no more. It is now an Arab Winter.

A Long Campaign In Gaza

For those of you not listening or reading the news, Operation Pillar of Defense has entered its sixth day. This is the current fighting taking place not in Syria but in Gaza between Hamas and Israel.

In a good analysis BICOM (British Israeli Communications & Research Centre) one sentence stood out, “Both sides want to win and, more importantly, neither side wants to come across as being seen as the losing party.”

That is the difference now. The Western press may increasingly show shelled buildings in Gaza City and wounded and displaced families and largely ignore the same pictures from Israeli towns across the border; unlike the early 2000s and previous incursions by IDF into Gaza before the disengagement in 2005, a cease-fire will be much harder to obtain.

Hama’s role within Palestinian society has strengthened while its rivals in the West Bank has weakened. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu no longer has “friendly” Egypt to contain Hamas actions and for truth’s sake, Netanyahu ideologically would like Hamas to be destroyed.

So, while there is talk for a cease-fire, both sides should prepare for a long campaign. And this applies to the Palestinian and Israeli citizens whose homes and streets and stores and playgrounds are in the cross hairs.